← Premier League 2024-25 · Sat, Jan 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Robinson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton win | 56% | 50% | 1.74 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 29% | 3.80 | value: +11% |
| Everton win | 18% | 21% | 5.42 | value: +12% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Everton −0.75 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Brighton −0.75 | 50% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 48% | 1.86 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 52% | 2.05 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | 🟨 | Jesper Lindstrøm · Everton |
| 41' | 🟨 | Bart Verbruggen · Brighton |
| 42' | ⚽ (pen) | Iliman Ndiaye · Everton |
| 43' | 🟨 | Iliman Ndiaye · Everton |
| 45' | 🟨 | Carlos Baleba · Brighton |
| 71' | 🟨 | Jordan Pickford · Everton |
| 83' | 🟨 | João Pedro · Brighton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Yankuba Minteh · Brighton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jake O'Brien · Everton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 3 |
| 1 | On target | 1 |
| 9 | Corners | 1 |
| 8 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Brighton | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| venue | American Express Stadium |
| coach days | 238.00 | 24.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.42 | 2.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1679.73 | 1579.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 33.62 | -10.61 |
| eye test v1 | 0.24 | -0.69 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.50 | 62.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.76 |
| league points | 34.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 6.04 | 6.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.55 | 0.95 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.30 | -0.35 |
| solidity v1 | 0.87 | -0.63 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 26.13 | 28.18 |
| state index | 0.80 | -0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.06 | -0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 347.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.10 | 1.55 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.37 | 1.06 |