← Premier League 2024-25 · Tue, Jan 14, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: C. Pawson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham win | 40% | 48% | 2.42 | value: +15% |
| West Ham win | 31% | 32% | 3.22 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 29% | 20% | 3.30 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| West Ham +0.25 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Fulham +0.25 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 50% | 37% | 1.95 | fair |
| Over | 50% | 63% | 1.96 | value: +24% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | ⚽ | Carlos Soler · West Ham |
| 33' | ⚽ | Tomáš Souček · West Ham |
| 44' | 🟨 | Timothy Castagne · Fulham |
| 51' | ⚽ | Alex Iwobi · Fulham |
| 53' | 🟨 | Lucas Paquetá · West Ham |
| 65' | 🟨 | Saša Lukić · Fulham |
| 66' | 🟨 | Tomáš Souček · West Ham |
| 67' | ⚽ | Lucas Paquetá · West Ham |
| 70' | 🟨 | Aaron Wan-Bissaka · West Ham |
| 78' | ⚽ | Alex Iwobi · Fulham |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 4 | Shots | 21 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 0 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 18 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Ham | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.12 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | London Stadium |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 13.00 | 1293.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.46 | 3.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1614.55 | 1651.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.10 | 8.16 |
| eye test v1 | -0.51 | 0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.60 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.00 | 62.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | — |
| league points | 23.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 84.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 54.80 |
| rest days | 10.19 | 9.23 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.00 | 0.71 |
| solidity v1 | -1.84 | -0.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 28.01 | 28.98 |
| state index | -0.26 | 0.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.42 | 0.52 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 17.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.88 | 1.42 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.38 | 1.45 |