← Premier League 2024-25 · Mon, Dec 9, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Brooks
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Ham win | 53% | 58% | 1.82 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 25% | 23% | 3.99 | fair |
| Wolves win | 22% | 18% | 4.37 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wolves −0.75 | 52% | 1.87 |
| West Ham −0.75 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 62% | 1.70 | value: +5% |
| Under | 43% | 38% | 2.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | 🟨 | Emerson Palmieri · West Ham |
| 45' | 🟨 | Matheus Cunha · Wolves |
| 49' | 🟨 | Matt Doherty · Wolves |
| 50' | 🟨 | Carlos Soler · West Ham |
| 54' | ⚽ | Tomáš Souček · West Ham |
| 63' | 🟨 | João Gomes · Wolves |
| 69' | ⚽ | Matt Doherty · Wolves |
| 72' | ⚽ | Jarrod Bowen · West Ham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jarrod Bowen · West Ham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Guido Rodríguez · West Ham |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 19 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 11 | Corners | 0 |
| 12 | Fouls | 17 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Ham | Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | London Stadium |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mario Lemina · Wolves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 161.00 | 8.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.01 | 1.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1615.62 | 1529.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.12 | 4.38 |
| eye test v1 | 0.59 | -0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | -0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.30 | 56.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| league points | 15.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 5.99 | 5.02 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 0.64 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.09 | -0.04 |
| solidity v1 | -1.09 | -0.64 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 29.08 | 27.64 |
| state index | -0.29 | -0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.24 | 0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 188.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.97 | 1.70 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.28 | 1.07 |