← Premier League 2024-25 · Sat, Nov 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Jones
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham win | 62% | 57% | 1.57 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 25% | 4.43 | value: +13% |
| Wolves win | 16% | 18% | 5.91 | value: +5% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fulham −1 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Wolves −1 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 51% | 1.63 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 49% | 2.38 | value: +17% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Alex Iwobi · Fulham |
| 31' | ⚽ | Matheus Cunha · Wolves |
| 45' | 🟨 | Calvin Bassey · Fulham |
| 53' | ⚽ | João Gomes · Wolves |
| 57' | 🟨 | Andreas Pereira · Fulham |
| 67' | 🟨 | Kenny Tete · Fulham |
| 87' | ⚽ | Matheus Cunha · Wolves |
| 90' | ⚽ | Gonçalo Guedes · Wolves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fulham | Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.52 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.51 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | Craven Cottage |
| coach days | 1241.00 | 480.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -7.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 10.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 1.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1860.15 | 1743.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.70 | 4.92 |
| eye test v1 | 0.87 | 0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.30 | 56.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.68 |
| league points | 18.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.60 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.20 | 42.60 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.64 | 0.55 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.17 | -0.43 |
| solidity v1 | -0.10 | -1.64 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 28.07 | 27.98 |
| state index | 0.98 | 0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.60 | -0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 180.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.23 | 2.07 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.77 | 1.23 |