← Premier League 2024-25 · Sat, Nov 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Attwell
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth win | 39% | 49% | 2.49 | value: +23% |
| Brighton win | 34% | 23% | 2.88 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.60 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth +0 | 54% | 1.83 |
| Brighton +0 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 58% | 1.59 | fair |
| Under | 39% | 42% | 2.49 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | João Pedro · Brighton |
| 30' | 🟨 | Georginio Rutter · Brighton |
| 40' | 🟨 | Antoine Semenyo · Bournemouth |
| 45' | 🟨 | Carlos Baleba · Brighton |
| 49' | ⚽ | Kaoru Mitoma · Brighton |
| 59' | 🟨 | Carlos Baleba · Brighton |
| 59' | 🟥 | Carlos Baleba · Brighton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lewis Cook · Bournemouth |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jan Paul van Hecke · Brighton |
| 90' | ⚽ | David Brooks · Bournemouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 6 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 0 |
| 13 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bournemouth | Brighton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Vitality Stadium |
| coach days | 511.00 | 175.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.12 | 3.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1834.16 | 1873.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.63 | 32.26 |
| eye test v1 | 0.11 | 0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.37 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.90 | 53.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.69 |
| league points | 15.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 84.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 13.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.36 | 1.73 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| solidity v1 | 0.16 | -0.90 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 26.36 | 25.59 |
| state index | 1.06 | 1.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.42 | -0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 124.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.26 | 1.72 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.79 | 1.50 |