← Premier League 2024-25 · Sat, Nov 9, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Barrott
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 53% | 60% | 1.83 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 24% | 22% | 4.15 | fair |
| Brighton win | 23% | 18% | 4.20 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Brighton +0.75 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Man City +0.75 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 65% | 70% | 1.49 | value: +4% |
| Under | 35% | 30% | 2.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | Yasin Ayari · Brighton |
| 23' | ⚽ | Erling Haaland · Man City |
| 37' | 🟨 | Rico Lewis · Man City |
| 44' | 🟨 | Igor Júlio · Brighton |
| 77' | 🟨 | Jahmai Simpson-Pusey · Man City |
| 78' | ⚽ | João Pedro · Brighton |
| 83' | ⚽ | Matt O'Riley · Brighton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jan Paul van Hecke · Brighton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Erling Haaland · Man City |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 15 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 0 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Brighton | Man City |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | American Express Stadium |
| coach days | 161.00 | 3053.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 8.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 10.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.54 | 4.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.71 |
| elo | 1856.87 | 2176.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.94 | -18.18 |
| eye test v1 | 0.36 | 1.17 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | -0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.80 | 58.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.65 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.72 |
| league points | 16.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.40 | 90.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 63.80 |
| rest days | 7.10 | 7.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 1.60 | 2.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 11.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 19.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.31 | 1.67 |
| solidity v1 | -1.55 | 0.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 25.51 | 28.56 |
| state index | 0.72 | 1.66 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.05 | 0.75 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| travel km | — | 325.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.11 | 1.48 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.26 | 1.72 |