← Premier League 2024-25 · Sat, Nov 2, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Taylor
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolves win | 40% | 34% | 2.44 | fair |
| Crystal Palace win | 31% | 34% | 3.13 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 29% | 33% | 3.40 | value: +11% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace −0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Wolves −0.25 | 47% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 44% | 1.91 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 56% | 2.00 | value: +12% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 60' | ⚽ | Trevoh Chalobah · Crystal Palace |
| 67' | ⚽ | Jørgen Strand Larsen · Wolves |
| 72' | ⚽ | João Gomes · Wolves |
| 77' | ⚽ | Marc Guéhi · Crystal Palace |
| 79' | 🟨 | Will Hughes · Crystal Palace |
| 88' | 🟨 | Gonçalo Guedes · Wolves |
| 89' | 🟨 | Daniel Muñoz · Crystal Palace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 19 |
| 6 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 7 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolves | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.51 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| venue | Molineux Stadium |
| coach days | 459.00 | 275.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -7.20 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.64 | 2.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1732.19 | 1826.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.24 | -13.95 |
| eye test v1 | -0.12 | 0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.40 | 49.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| league points | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 20.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 12.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 73.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.80 | 41.80 |
| rest days | 7.15 | 6.15 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | — |
| season ppg | 0.22 | 0.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.43 | -0.92 |
| solidity v1 | -2.23 | 0.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 27.13 | 25.98 |
| state index | -0.64 | 0.52 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.03 | -1.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| travel km | — | 192.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.29 | 1.30 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.87 |