← Premier League 2024-25 · Sat, Oct 19, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: A. Madley
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham win | 66% | 59% | 1.45 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 29% | 5.45 | value: +59% |
| West Ham win | 16% | 12% | 6.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Tottenham −1.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| West Ham −1.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 72% | 65% | 1.35 | fair |
| Under | 28% | 35% | 3.40 | value: +19% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Mohammed Kudus · West Ham |
| 36' | ⚽ | Dejan Kulusevski · Tottenham |
| 43' | 🟨 | Lucas Paquetá · West Ham |
| 52' | ⚽ | Yves Bissouma · Tottenham |
| 55' | ⚽ (og) | Alphonse Aréola · Tottenham |
| 56' | 🟨 | Tomáš Souček · West Ham |
| 60' | ⚽ | Son Heung-min · Tottenham |
| 67' | 🟨 | Carlos Soler · West Ham |
| 84' | 🟨 | Micky van de Ven · Tottenham |
| 86' | 🟥 | Mohammed Kudus · West Ham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 22 | Shots | 11 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 13 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Tottenham | West Ham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.80 |
| venue | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| coach days | 476.00 | 110.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.68 | 1.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1923.25 | 1827.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.52 | -4.87 |
| eye test v1 | 1.58 | 0.64 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | 0.53 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.90 | 57.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.67 |
| league points | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.60 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.00 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 12.83 | 13.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.00 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.51 | 0.20 |
| solidity v1 | 0.01 | -0.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.90 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 25.61 | 28.32 |
| state index | 1.50 | 0.59 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.09 | -0.75 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| travel km | — | 9.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.41 | 1.55 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.42 | 1.42 |