← Premier League 2024-25 · Sat, Sep 21, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: S. Barrott
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 48% | 54% | 2.01 | value: +9% |
| West Ham win | 27% | 26% | 3.59 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 20% | 3.94 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| West Ham +0.5 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Chelsea +0.5 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 63% | 67% | 1.52 | fair |
| Under | 37% | 33% | 2.63 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Nicolas Jackson · Chelsea |
| 18' | ⚽ | Nicolas Jackson · Chelsea |
| 45' | 🟨 | Wesley Fofana · Chelsea |
| 47' | 🟨 | Tomáš Souček · West Ham |
| 47' | ⚽ | Cole Palmer · Chelsea |
| 49' | 🟨 | Edson Álvarez · West Ham |
| 71' | 🟨 | Marc Cucurella · Chelsea |
| 77' | 🟨 | Max Kilman · West Ham |
| 83' | 🟨 | Michail Antonio · West Ham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Carlos Soler · West Ham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 15 | Shots | 12 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 17 | Fouls | 9 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Ham | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| venue | London Stadium |
| coach days | 82.00 | 112.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 1.48 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1829.80 | 1921.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.85 | 3.68 |
| eye test v1 | -0.52 | 0.88 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.30 | -0.44 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.40 | 56.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.89 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.69 |
| league points | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 87.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.00 | 63.20 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 6.69 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.00 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.38 | 1.25 |
| solidity v1 | -1.32 | -0.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 28.11 | 23.88 |
| state index | 0.39 | 1.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.57 | 1.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 15.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.99 | 1.45 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.14 | 1.40 |