← Premier League 2023-24 · Sun, Mar 10, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Salisbury
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton win | 58% | 59% | 1.63 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 22% | 4.39 | fair |
| Nott'm Forest win | 19% | 19% | 5.30 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Brighton −0.75 | 54% | 1.79 |
| Nott'm Forest −0.75 | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 61% | 1.60 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 39% | 2.46 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Nicolás Domínguez · Nott'm Forest |
| 19' | 🟨 | Andrew Omobamidele · Nott'm Forest |
| 29' | ⚽ (og) | Andrew Omobamidele · Brighton |
| 41' | 🟨 | Ansu Fati · Brighton |
| 55' | 🟨 | Neco Williams · Nott'm Forest |
| 67' | 🟨 | Jakub Moder · Brighton |
| 78' | 🟨 | Joël Veltman · Brighton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Adam Lallana · Brighton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ibrahim Sangaré · Nott'm Forest |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Brighton | Nott'm Forest |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | American Express Stadium |
| coach days |
| 556.00 |
| 100.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.25 | 1.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1672.78 | 1534.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -35.15 | 6.57 |
| eye test v1 | 0.81 | 0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.20 | 59.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.01 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.61 |
| league points | 39.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 89.40 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 64.00 | 42.60 |
| rest days | 2.84 | 7.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 0.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.80 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.20 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.61 | -0.08 |
| solidity v1 | -0.23 | -0.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 26.41 | 25.08 |
| state index | 0.13 | -0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.31 | -0.60 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 242.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.36 | 1.58 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.58 | 1.68 |