← Premier League 2023-24 · Sat, Feb 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Hooper
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton win | 56% | 58% | 1.74 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 22% | 3.90 | fair |
| Crystal Palace win | 19% | 21% | 5.23 | value: +8% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Brighton −0.75 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Crystal Palace −0.75 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 38% | 1.85 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 62% | 2.06 | value: +27% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Lewis Dunk · Brighton |
| 16' | 🟨 | Marc Guéhi · Crystal Palace |
| 33' | ⚽ | Jack Hinshelwood · Brighton |
| 34' | ⚽ | Facundo Buonanotte · Brighton |
| 59' | 🟨 | Matheus França · Crystal Palace |
| 62' | 🟨 | Daniel Muñoz · Crystal Palace |
| 71' | ⚽ | Jean-Philippe Mateta · Crystal Palace |
| 85' | ⚽ | João Pedro · Brighton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Danny Welbeck · Brighton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Brighton | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | American Express Stadium |
| coach days | 520.00 | 2.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.69 | 2.92 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1883.78 | 1792.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.05 | 7.44 |
| eye test v1 | 0.88 | 0.09 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.50 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.70 | 60.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.65 |
| league points | 32.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.80 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.20 | 41.80 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.45 | 1.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.47 | -0.37 |
| solidity v1 | -0.31 | -0.98 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 26.61 | 26.56 |
| state index | 0.78 | 0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.04 | -0.69 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| travel km | — | 59.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.75 | 1.82 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.83 | 0.99 |