← Premier League 2023-24 · Thu, Dec 28, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: J. Gillett
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton win | 38% | 39% | 2.50 | fair |
| Tottenham win | 36% | 34% | 2.71 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 27% | 3.92 | value: +5% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Brighton +0 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Tottenham +0 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 63% | 1.44 | fair |
| Under | 34% | 37% | 2.93 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Jack Hinshelwood · Brighton |
| 23' | 🟨 | Dejan Kulusevski · Tottenham |
| 23' | ⚽ (pen) | João Pedro · Brighton |
| 43' | 🟨 | Facundo Buonanotte · Brighton |
| 57' | 🟨 | Richarlison · Tottenham |
| 63' | ⚽ | Pervis Estupiñán · Brighton |
| 70' | 🟨 | Jakub Moder · Brighton |
| 75' | ⚽ (pen) | João Pedro · Brighton |
| 81' | ⚽ | Alejo Veliz · Tottenham |
| 82' | 🟨 | Lewis Dunk · Brighton |
| 85' | ⚽ |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 19 |
| 9 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 18 | Fouls | 6 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Brighton | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.80 |
| venue | American Express Stadium |
| Ben Davies · Tottenham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 483.00 | 180.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.20 | 2.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1898.26 | 1938.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.13 | 25.09 |
| eye test v1 | 0.78 | 1.30 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.46 | 0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 45.30 | 49.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.64 |
| league points | 27.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 89.60 | 87.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.40 | 60.80 |
| rest days | 6.98 | 5.19 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.80 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.42 | 1.42 |
| solidity v1 | 0.47 | -0.61 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| squad age | 25.00 | 25.95 |
| state index | 0.86 | 1.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.05 | 0.88 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 82.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.23 | 1.92 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.48 | 1.82 |