← Premier League 2023-24 · Sun, Dec 3, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Pawson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 60% | 54% | 1.60 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 28% | 4.45 | value: +23% |
| Brighton win | 18% | 18% | 5.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Brighton −1 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Chelsea −1 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 55% | 1.67 | fair |
| Under | 42% | 45% | 2.31 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Enzo Fernández · Chelsea |
| 21' | ⚽ | Levi Colwill · Chelsea |
| 31' | 🟨 | Conor Gallagher · Chelsea |
| 43' | ⚽ | Facundo Buonanotte · Brighton |
| 45' | 🟨 | Conor Gallagher · Chelsea |
| 45' | 🟥 | Conor Gallagher · Chelsea |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jack Hinshelwood · Brighton |
| 52' | 🟨 | Benoît Badiashile · Chelsea |
| 58' | 🟨 | Igor Júlio · Brighton |
| 59' | 🟨 | Enzo Fernández · Chelsea |
| 64' | 🟨 |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 18 |
| 5 | On target | 9 |
| 5 | Corners | 8 |
| 16 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chelsea | Brighton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.52 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stamford Bridge |
| James Milner · Brighton |
| 64' | 🟨 | Pascal Groß · Brighton |
| 65' | ⚽ (pen) | Enzo Fernández · Chelsea |
| 88' | 🟨 | Robert Sánchez · Chelsea |
| 90' | 🟨 | João Pedro · Brighton |
| 90' | ⚽ | João Pedro · Brighton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 155.00 | 458.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.98 | 1.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1640.31 | 1723.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.18 | 20.99 |
| eye test v1 | 0.99 | -0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.47 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.00 | 45.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.77 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.69 |
| league points | 16.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.40 | 86.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.80 | 56.80 |
| rest days | 7.96 | 2.84 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 1.69 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.20 | 0.78 |
| solidity v1 | -1.28 | 0.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 25.13 | 25.15 |
| state index | 0.07 | 0.79 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.36 | 1.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.17 |
| travel km | — | 69.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.86 | 1.19 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.15 |