← Premier League 2023-24 · Sat, Nov 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Taylor
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton win | 47% | 52% | 2.07 | value: +7% |
| Nott'm Forest win | 26% | 25% | 3.69 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 23% | 3.63 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Brighton +0.25 | 54% | 1.80 |
| Nott'm Forest +0.25 | 46% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 51% | 1.94 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 49% | 1.98 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Anthony Elanga · Nott'm Forest |
| 26' | ⚽ | Evan Ferguson · Brighton |
| 45' | ⚽ | João Pedro · Brighton |
| 54' | 🟨 | Harry Toffolo · Nott'm Forest |
| 58' | ⚽ (pen) | João Pedro · Brighton |
| 65' | 🟨 | Simon Adingra · Brighton |
| 72' | 🟨 | Lewis Dunk · Brighton |
| 73' | 🟥 | Lewis Dunk · Brighton |
| 74' | 🟨 | Moussa Niakhaté · Nott'm Forest |
| 74' | 🟨 | Evan Ferguson · Brighton |
| 76' | ⚽ (pen) | Morgan Gibbs-White · |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 18 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nott'm Forest | Brighton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | The City Ground |
| 82' | 🟨 | Bart Verbruggen · Brighton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Facundo Buonanotte · Brighton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 815.00 |
| 450.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 2.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 2.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1551.32 | 1709.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.95 | 15.12 |
| eye test v1 | 0.07 | 0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.40 | 45.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.60 |
| league points | 13.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 89.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.00 | 64.40 |
| rest days | 13.04 | 13.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 1.58 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.40 | 1.40 |
| solidity v1 | -0.58 | 1.37 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 25.87 | 26.34 |
| state index | 0.14 | 0.56 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.70 | 1.80 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.18 |
| travel km | — | 242.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.75 | 0.67 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.31 | 1.16 |