← Premier League 2023-24 · Sat, Oct 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Jones
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 71% | 72% | 1.36 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 17% | 6.00 | fair |
| Brighton win | 13% | 11% | 8.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Brighton −1.5 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Man City −1.5 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 71% | 67% | 1.38 | fair |
| Under | 29% | 33% | 3.40 | value: +12% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Julián Alvarez · Man City |
| 19' | ⚽ | Erling Haaland · Man City |
| 36' | 🟨 | Solly March · Brighton |
| 38' | 🟨 | Rodri · Man City |
| 63' | 🟨 | Manuel Akanji · Man City |
| 64' | 🟨 | Igor Júlio · Brighton |
| 73' | ⚽ | Ansu Fati · Brighton |
| 84' | 🟨 | Jack Grealish · Man City |
| 90' | 🟨 | Manuel Akanji · Man City |
| 90' | 🟥 | Manuel Akanji · Man City |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 5 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man City | Brighton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Etihad Stadium |
| coach days | 2668.00 | 415.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.44 | 4.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.49 |
| elo | 2142.98 | 1897.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.46 | -27.89 |
| eye test v1 | 1.11 | 0.59 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.50 | -0.79 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.80 | 60.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.65 |
| league points | 18.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 89.20 | 86.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.40 | 59.80 |
| rest days | 12.94 | 13.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.44 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 2.25 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.60 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.56 | 1.64 |
| solidity v1 | 1.11 | -0.98 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 26.26 | 25.89 |
| state index | 1.68 | 0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.39 | 1.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 325.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.86 | 1.53 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.71 | 2.23 |