← Premier League 2023-24 · Sat, Sep 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Gillett
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 47% | 45% | 2.07 | fair |
| Brighton win | 28% | 30% | 3.53 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 24% | 25% | 4.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Brighton −0.5 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Man United −0.5 | 48% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 65% | 66% | 1.49 | fair |
| Under | 35% | 34% | 2.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟨 | Tariq Lamptey · Brighton |
| 20' | ⚽ | Danny Welbeck · Brighton |
| 24' | 🟨 | Jan Paul van Hecke · Brighton |
| 45' | 🟨 | Bruno Fernandes · Man United |
| 53' | ⚽ | Pascal Groß · Brighton |
| 71' | ⚽ | João Pedro · Brighton |
| 73' | ⚽ | Hannibal Mejbri · Man United |
| 90' | 🟨 | Hannibal Mejbri · Man United |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 8 |
| 8 | Corners | 1 |
| 8 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man United | Brighton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.40 |
| venue | Old Trafford |
| coach days | 472.00 | 380.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.80 | 5.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1934.06 | 1906.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.20 | 7.69 |
| eye test v1 | 1.04 | 1.75 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.33 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.00 | 57.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.75 |
| league points | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.00 | 88.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | 63.80 |
| rest days | 12.94 | 13.90 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 2.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.20 | 18.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.08 | 1.81 |
| solidity v1 | -0.80 | -1.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 8.00 |
| squad age | 27.38 | 26.07 |
| state index | 1.09 | 1.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.33 | 0.92 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 326.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.87 | 2.19 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.19 | 2.07 |