← Premier League 2022-23 · Sat, Apr 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Bankes
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 54% | 55% | 1.79 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.70 | fair |
| Wolves win | 19% | 17% | 5.08 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wolves +0.75 | 52% | 1.91 |
| Chelsea +0.75 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 50% | 1.74 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 50% | 2.21 | value: +10% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | ⚽ | Matheus Nunes · Wolves |
| 39' | 🟨 | Mario Lemina · Wolves |
| 49' | 🟨 | Marc Cucurella · Chelsea |
| 59' | 🟨 | João Gomes · Wolves |
| 63' | 🟨 | Raheem Sterling · Chelsea |
| 67' | 🟨 | Conor Gallagher · Chelsea |
| 87' | 🟨 | Mateo Kovačić · Chelsea |
| 89' | 🟨 | Ben Chilwell · Chelsea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 8 | Corners | 8 |
| 14 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolves | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Molineux Stadium |
| coach days | 158.00 | 7.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.13 | 2.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1537.68 | 1663.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.45 | -4.79 |
| eye test v1 | -0.23 | 0.84 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.29 | 0.47 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 44.50 | 53.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.80 |
| league points | 28.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 86.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.20 | 59.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 3.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 1.34 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.60 | 6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 16.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.53 | 1.43 |
| solidity v1 | -1.11 | 0.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 27.72 | 25.92 |
| state index | -0.36 | 0.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.19 | 0.64 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 181.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.71 | 1.22 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.16 | 1.95 |