← Premier League 2022-23 · Sat, Apr 1, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Madley
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 60% | 41% | 1.63 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 42% | 4.09 | value: +72% ⚠ |
| Aston Villa win | 16% | 17% | 6.06 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa −1 | 52% | 1.86 |
| Chelsea −1 | 48% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 50% | 1.92 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 50% | 1.99 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟨 | Boubacar Kamara · Aston Villa |
| 18' | ⚽ | Ollie Watkins · Aston Villa |
| 39' | 🟨 | Mateo Kovačić · Chelsea |
| 54' | 🟨 | Ben Chilwell · Chelsea |
| 56' | ⚽ | John McGinn · Aston Villa |
| 68' | 🟨 | Enzo Fernández · Chelsea |
| 84' | 🟨 | Calum Chambers · Aston Villa |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lucas Digne · Aston Villa |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 27 | Shots | 5 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 13 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chelsea | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| venue | Stamford Bridge |
| coach days | 0.00 | 151.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 3.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1681.99 | 1612.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.30 | 26.53 |
| eye test v1 | 0.32 | 0.46 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.80 | 54.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.66 |
| league points | 38.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.20 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.60 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 14.06 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.41 | 1.41 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.14 | 0.78 |
| solidity v1 | 0.19 | -0.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 25.03 | 26.90 |
| state index | 0.45 | 0.69 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.94 | 0.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 162.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.25 | 1.75 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.49 | 1.78 |