← Premier League 2021-22 · Sun, Feb 20, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: C. Pawson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolves win | 44% | 36% | 2.20 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.27 | fair |
| Leicester win | 27% | 33% | 3.81 | value: +26% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wolves −0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Leicester −0.25 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 62% | 1.60 | fair |
| Over | 40% | 38% | 2.46 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Rúben Neves · Wolves |
| 29' | 🟨 | Çağlar Söyüncü · Leicester |
| 31' | 🟨 | Rayan Aït-Nouri · Wolves |
| 36' | 🟨 | Marc Albrighton · Leicester |
| 38' | 🟨 | Daniel Podence · Wolves |
| 38' | 🟨 | Ademola Lookman · Leicester |
| 41' | ⚽ | Ademola Lookman · Leicester |
| 66' | ⚽ | Daniel Podence · Wolves |
| 70' | 🟨 | Leander Dendoncker · Wolves |
| 76' | 🟨 | Rúben Neves · Wolves |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 17 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 7 | Corners | 10 |
| 12 | Fouls | 9 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolves | Leicester |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| venue | Molineux Stadium |
| Ricardo Pereira · Leicester |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 264.00 | 1092.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.23 | 1.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1848.21 | 1820.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 43.77 | -13.73 |
| eye test v1 | 0.28 | 0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.27 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.70 | 51.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.33 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.90 | 0.63 |
| league points | 37.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 7.10 | 2.85 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.61 | 1.23 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -7.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.09 | 0.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 26.47 | 26.89 |
| state index | 1.23 | 0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.14 | -0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 66.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |