← Premier League 2021-22 · Sun, Dec 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Kavanagh
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 85% | 67% | 1.13 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 17% | 10.50 | value: +83% |
| Leicester win | 5% | 15% | 21.00 | value: +221% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Man City −2.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Leicester −2.5 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 74% | 66% | 1.32 | fair |
| Under | 26% | 34% | 3.75 | value: +27% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Kevin De Bruyne · Man City |
| 14' | ⚽ (pen) | Riyad Mahrez · Man City |
| 21' | ⚽ | İlkay Gündoğan · Man City |
| 25' | ⚽ (pen) | Raheem Sterling · Man City |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jannik Vestergaard · Leicester |
| 55' | ⚽ | James Maddison · Leicester |
| 59' | ⚽ | Ademola Lookman · Leicester |
| 65' | ⚽ | Kelechi Iheanacho · Leicester |
| 69' | ⚽ | Aymeric Laporte · Man City |
| 75' | 🟨 | James Maddison · Leicester |
| 87' |
| 4 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 14 |
| 9 | On target | 8 |
| 14 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man City | Leicester |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| venue | Etihad Stadium |
| ⚽ |
| Raheem Sterling · Man City |
| 90' | 🟨 | Fernandinho · Man City |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 2004.00 | 1036.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.72 | 2.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.78 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1905.97 | 1635.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.94 | 2.18 |
| eye test v1 | 2.78 | 0.78 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | -0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.50 | 54.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.93 | 1.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.67 |
| league points | 44.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 91.20 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 69.60 | 54.20 |
| rest days | 7.04 | 14.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 2.44 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 16.60 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 23.20 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 2.64 | 0.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 9.00 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 10.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 27.34 | 25.22 |
| state index | 2.06 | 0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.95 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 119.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |