← Premier League 2019-20 · Sat, Oct 26, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: Graham Scott, England
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Man City win | 89% | 89% | 1.08 | fair |
| Draw | 7% | 7% | 16.50 | value: +20% |
| Aston Villa win | 4% | 4% | 33.50 | value: +20% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Aston Villa −3.25 | 55% | 1.78 |
| Man City −3.25 | 45% | 2.16 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 82% | 75% | 1.16 | fair |
| Under | 18% | 25% | 5.83 | value: +43% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 25 | Shots | 11 |
| 9 | On target | 5 |
| 13 | Corners | 7 |
| 10 | Fouls | 5 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand