← Premier League 2019-20 · Sat, Sep 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Mike Dean, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 87% | 76% | 1.11 | fair |
| Draw | 9% | 17% | 11.33 | value: +98% |
| Watford win | 4% | 7% | 25.74 | value: +69% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Man City −2.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Watford −2.5 | 49% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 76% | 66% | 1.28 | fair |
| Under | 24% | 34% | 4.01 | value: +37% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | David Silva · Man City |
| 7' | ⚽ (pen) | Sergio Agüero · Man City |
| 12' | ⚽ | Riyad Mahrez · Man City |
| 15' | ⚽ | Bernardo Silva · Man City |
| 18' | ⚽ | Nicolás Otamendi · Man City |
| 19' | 🟨 | Bernardo Silva · Man City |
| 48' | ⚽ | Bernardo Silva · Man City |
| 59' | 🟨 | Kiko Femenía · Watford |
| 59' | 🟨 | Gerard Deulofeu · Watford |
| 60' | ⚽ | Bernardo Silva · Man City |
| 81' | 🟨 |
| 5 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 28 | Shots | 5 |
| 11 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 5 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man City | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Etihad Stadium |
| Angeliño · Man City |
| 85' | ⚽ | Kevin De Bruyne · Man City |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1177.00 | 20.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.95 | 1.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1930.38 | 1489.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.72 | -35.95 |
| eye test v1 | 1.77 | 0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.33 | 0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.40 | 63.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.60 |
| league points | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.60 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.80 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 5.94 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | — |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 20.60 | 17.20 |
| skill v1 | 2.00 | 0.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.80 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 27.11 | 29.30 |
| state index | 1.61 | -0.87 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.50 | -0.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.42 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| travel km | — | 237.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |