← Premier League 2018-19 · Mon, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Mike Dean, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 83% | 75% | 1.17 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 21% | 9.36 | value: +98% |
| Leicester win | 6% | 4% | 15.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | David Silva · Man City |
| 35' | 🟨 | Harry Maguire · Leicester |
| 44' | 🟨 | Vincent Kompany · Man City |
| 70' | ⚽ | Vincent Kompany · Man City |
| 89' | 🟨 | Gabriel Jesus · Man City |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kelechi Iheanacho · Leicester |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 11 | Corners | 0 |
| 12 | Fouls | 5 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man City | Leicester |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| venue | Etihad Stadium |
| coach days | 1039.00 | 71.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.30 | 2.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.63 |
| elo | 2134.62 | 1785.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.17 | 31.65 |
| eye test v1 | 1.33 | 1.26 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.49 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.30 | 57.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.87 | 0.61 |
| league points | 92.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.20 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 69.00 | 60.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 2.56 | 1.42 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 7.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.00 | 16.60 |
| skill v1 | 2.46 | 1.37 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.20 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 7.00 |
| squad age | 27.20 | 26.14 |
| state index | 2.44 | 1.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.35 | 0.63 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 119.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |