← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Mar 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Lee Probert, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace win | 37% | 39% | 2.66 | fair |
| Burnley win | 33% | 24% | 2.95 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 38% | 3.26 | value: +22% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ (og) | Phil Bardsley · Crystal Palace |
| 38' | 🟨 | Ben Mee · Burnley |
| 48' | ⚽ | Michy Batshuayi · Crystal Palace |
| 65' | 🟨 | James Tomkins · Crystal Palace |
| 69' | 🟨 | Max Meyer · Crystal Palace |
| 76' | ⚽ | Wilfried Zaha · Crystal Palace |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ashley Barnes · Burnley |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burnley | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Turf Moor |
| coach days | 2343.00 | 547.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.01 | 3.52 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1716.64 | 1752.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.97 | 22.31 |
| eye test v1 | -0.26 | 0.31 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 71.80 | 68.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.71 |
| league points | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 63.40 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.60 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 1.07 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | -2.23 | -0.48 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 28.56 | 28.31 |
| state index | 0.65 | 0.94 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.55 | -1.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.37 |
| travel km | — | 302.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |