← Premier League 2018-19 · Sun, Dec 30, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Paul Tierney, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 79% | 74% | 1.23 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 14% | 7.05 | fair |
| Southampton win | 8% | 12% | 12.58 | value: +47% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | David Silva · Man City |
| 32' | 🟨 | Sergio Agüero · Man City |
| 37' | ⚽ | Pierre-Emile Højbjerg · Southampton |
| 45' | ⚽ (og) | James Ward-Prowse · Man City |
| 45' | ⚽ | Sergio Agüero · Man City |
| 58' | 🟨 | Charlie Austin · Southampton |
| 72' | 🟨 | Vincent Kompany · Man City |
| 73' | 🟨 | Jan Bednarek · Southampton |
| 78' | 🟨 | Danilo · Man City |
| 85' | 🟥 | Pierre-Emile Højbjerg · Southampton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 5 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 8 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Southampton | Man City |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.50 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| venue | St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton |
| coach days | 29.00 | 912.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 8.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 1.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 10.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.79 | 3.92 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.25 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1488.58 | 1889.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.25 | -50.26 |
| eye test v1 | 0.26 | 0.58 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | -0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.40 | 63.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.72 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.61 |
| league points | 15.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 87.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.60 | 69.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 0.79 | 2.32 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.57 | 2.42 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 25.80 | 26.38 |
| state index | -0.16 | 0.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.81 | 1.81 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| travel km | — | 291.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |