← Premier League 2018-19 · Wed, Dec 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Mike Dean, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 73% | 71% | 1.33 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 17% | 5.90 | fair |
| Leicester win | 10% | 12% | 9.58 | value: +16% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Bernardo Silva · Man City |
| 19' | ⚽ | Marc Albrighton · Leicester |
| 58' | 🟨 | Harry Maguire · Leicester |
| 77' | 🟨 | John Stones · Man City |
| 81' | ⚽ | Ricardo Pereira · Leicester |
| 87' | 🟨 | Jamie Vardy · Leicester |
| 89' | 🟥 | Fabian Delph · Man City |
| 90' | 🟨 | David Silva · Man City |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 5 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leicester | Man City |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| venue | King Power Stadium |
| coach days | 451.00 | 908.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 8.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 2.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 10.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.26 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.68 |
| elo | 1572.02 | 1905.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.28 | -31.43 |
| eye test v1 | -0.61 | 0.78 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | -0.47 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.40 | 62.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.65 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.62 |
| league points | 25.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.40 | 88.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.80 | 70.20 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.39 | 2.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 8.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.87 | 2.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 26.55 | 25.86 |
| state index | 0.07 | 0.98 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.49 | 1.83 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 119.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |