← Premier League 2018-19 · Sun, Nov 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Anthony Taylor, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 72% | 61% | 1.36 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 30% | 5.42 | value: +61% |
| Man United win | 10% | 10% | 9.53 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | David Silva · Man City |
| 33' | 🟨 | Bernardo Silva · Man City |
| 42' | 🟨 | Luke Shaw · Man United |
| 48' | ⚽ | Sergio Agüero · Man City |
| 58' | ⚽ (pen) | Anthony Martial · Man United |
| 86' | ⚽ | İlkay Gündoğan · Man City |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 6 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man City | Man United |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.58 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.55 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | Etihad Stadium |
| coach days | 863.00 | 924.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.53 | 2.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.47 |
| elo | 2118.17 | 1947.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.70 | -4.37 |
| eye test v1 | 1.27 | 1.25 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.80 | 56.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.23 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.75 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.69 |
| league points | 29.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.60 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.80 | 53.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 2.64 | 1.82 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 11.40 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.80 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 2.05 | 0.66 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 8.10 | 6.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.00 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 7.20 |
| squad age | 26.64 | 27.27 |
| state index | 2.57 | 1.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.06 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 6.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |