← Premier League 2018-19 · Sun, Nov 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Lee Mason, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 87% | 82% | 1.12 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 8% | 10.04 | fair |
| Southampton win | 4% | 10% | 27.35 | value: +173% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ (og) | Wesley Hoedt · Man City |
| 10' | 🟨 | James Ward-Prowse · Southampton |
| 12' | ⚽ | Sergio Agüero · Man City |
| 18' | ⚽ | David Silva · Man City |
| 29' | ⚽ (pen) | Danny Ings · Southampton |
| 38' | 🟨 | Sergio Agüero · Man City |
| 45' | ⚽ | Raheem Sterling · Man City |
| 67' | ⚽ | Raheem Sterling · Man City |
| 90' | ⚽ | Leroy Sané · Man City |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 4 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 12 |
| 8 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man City | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.78 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Etihad Stadium |
| coach days | 856.00 | 248.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 6.20 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.16 | 2.54 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1923.47 | 1488.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.50 | -25.95 |
| eye test v1 | 1.42 | 0.09 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.63 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.00 | 62.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.00 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.70 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | 0.70 |
| league points | 26.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.60 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 66.20 | 43.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 2.60 | 0.70 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.40 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 2.21 | -0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 8.10 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 27.14 | 26.48 |
| state index | 2.20 | -0.72 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.20 | -0.84 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| travel km | — | 291.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |