← Premier League 2018-19 · Sat, Sep 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Stuart Attwell, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 88% | 69% | 1.10 | fair |
| Draw | 8% | 25% | 12.75 | value: +221% ⚠ |
| Fulham win | 4% | 6% | 25.00 | value: +54% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Leroy Sané · Man City |
| 21' | ⚽ | David Silva · Man City |
| 47' | ⚽ | Raheem Sterling · Man City |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 28 | Shots | 9 |
| 9 | On target | 3 |
| 10 | Corners | 4 |
| 7 | Fouls | 7 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man City | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Etihad Stadium |
| coach days | 806.00 | 1049.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 6.60 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.75 | 2.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1906.45 | 1430.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.92 | 10.45 |
| eye test v1 | 1.66 | 1.05 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | — |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.60 | 70.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | — |
| league points | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.80 | 85.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 70.80 | 57.25 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.57 |
| season ppg | 2.50 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 13.60 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 20.80 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | 2.67 | 1.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.30 | — |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 9.33 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 6.50 |
| squad age | 26.89 | 26.05 |
| state index | 1.77 | -0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.32 | 0.64 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | — |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 260.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |