← Premier League 2018-19 · Sun, Aug 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Andre Marriner, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 90% | 82% | 1.08 | fair |
| Draw | 7% | 13% | 13.93 | value: +84% |
| Huddersfield win | 3% | 5% | 36.05 | value: +86% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Sergio Agüero · Man City |
| 31' | ⚽ | Gabriel Jesus · Man City |
| 35' | ⚽ | Sergio Agüero · Man City |
| 43' | ⚽ | Jon Gorenc Stanković · Huddersfield |
| 48' | ⚽ | David Silva · Man City |
| 51' | 🟨 | Philip Billing · Huddersfield |
| 69' | 🟨 | Christopher Schindler · Huddersfield |
| 75' | ⚽ | Sergio Agüero · Man City |
| 84' | ⚽ (og) | Terence Kongolo · Man City |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 32 | Shots | 5 |
| 14 | On target | 1 |
| 10 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 4 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man City | Huddersfield |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Etihad Stadium |
| coach days | 779.00 | 1022.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 7.00 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.58 | 3.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1911.70 | 1463.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.93 | -10.11 |
| eye test v1 | 0.79 | -1.08 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | 0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.30 | 58.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 0.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.70 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.41 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.60 | 68.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 71.20 | 35.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 10.20 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.60 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | 2.69 | -1.84 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 2.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.20 |
| squad age | 26.44 | 26.79 |
| state index | 1.77 | -0.75 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.76 | -1.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 34.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |