← Premier League 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Craig Pawson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 86% | 70% | 1.13 | fair |
| Draw | 9% | 13% | 10.25 | value: +29% |
| Swansea win | 5% | 17% | 19.50 | value: +232% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | David Silva · Man City |
| 16' | ⚽ | Raheem Sterling · Man City |
| 40' | 🟨 | Martin Olsson · Swansea |
| 54' | ⚽ | Kevin De Bruyne · Man City |
| 64' | ⚽ | Bernardo Silva · Man City |
| 88' | ⚽ | Gabriel Jesus · Man City |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 4 |
| 12 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 6 | Fouls | 8 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man City | Swansea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | Etihad Stadium |
| coach days | 660.00 | 142.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.57 | 1.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.78 | 0.34 |
| elo | 1898.81 | 1519.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.50 | 11.69 |
| eye test v1 | 0.72 | -0.74 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.34 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 70.60 | 56.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.69 |
| league points | 87.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 89.00 | 72.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 69.40 | 39.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 2.64 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 12.00 | -7.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.00 | 7.20 |
| skill v1 | 2.62 | -1.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.70 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 26.62 | 28.34 |
| state index | 1.72 | -0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.56 | -0.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| travel km | — | 235.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |