← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Chris Kavanagh, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton win | 36% | 33% | 2.70 | fair |
| Leicester win | 34% | 41% | 2.85 | value: +16% |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.34 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Wes Morgan · Leicester |
| 24' | 🟨 | Wilfred Ndidi · Leicester |
| 63' | 🟨 | Ben Chilwell · Leicester |
| 64' | 🟨 | Danny Simpson · Leicester |
| 66' | 🟨 | Beram Kayal · Brighton |
| 68' | 🟨 | Harry Maguire · Leicester |
| 79' | 🟨 | Gaëtan Bong · Brighton |
| 83' | ⚽ | Vicente Iborra · Leicester |
| 87' | 🟨 | Wilfred Ndidi · Leicester |
| 87' | 🟥 | Wilfred Ndidi · Leicester |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jamie Vardy · Leicester |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 6 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Brighton | Leicester |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | American Express Community Stadium |
| coach days |
| 1216.00 |
| 181.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 4.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1517.01 | 1602.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 34.45 | -3.04 |
| eye test v1 | 0.41 | 0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.34 | 0.60 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 69.00 | 55.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.66 |
| league points | 34.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.00 | 73.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.20 | 53.60 |
| rest days | 20.96 | 20.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.13 | -0.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 27.74 | 27.65 |
| state index | 0.52 | 0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.45 | 0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 208.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |