← Premier League 2017-18 · Mon, Mar 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jonathan Moss, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 79% | 72% | 1.24 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 16% | 6.95 | value: +13% |
| Stoke win | 7% | 12% | 13.75 | value: +67% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | David Silva · Man City |
| 50' | ⚽ | David Silva · Man City |
| 73' | 🟨 | Joe Allen · Stoke |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 3 | Shots | 17 |
| 0 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 10 |
| 6 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stoke | Man City |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | bet365 Stadium |
| coach days | 70.00 | 619.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | 4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.17 | 4.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.75 |
| elo | 1492.03 | 1887.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.78 | 18.82 |
| eye test v1 | -0.74 | 1.43 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.26 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.10 | 55.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.71 |
| league points | 27.00 | 78.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.60 | 87.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.40 | 68.20 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.93 | 2.69 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | 10.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 16.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.68 | 2.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 7.20 |
| squad age | 27.55 | 26.23 |
| state index | -0.27 | 1.75 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.07 | 1.60 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 55.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |