← Premier League 2017-18 · Thu, Mar 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Andre Marriner, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 57% | 52% | 1.72 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 30% | 4.33 | value: +29% |
| Arsenal win | 21% | 19% | 4.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Bernardo Silva · Man City |
| 19' | 🟨 | Nicolás Otamendi · Man City |
| 28' | ⚽ | David Silva · Man City |
| 32' | 🟨 | Sead Kolašinac · Arsenal |
| 33' | ⚽ | Leroy Sané · Man City |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 10 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Arsenal | Man City |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | Emirates Stadium |
| coach days |
| 7822.00 |
| 608.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 8.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 2.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 10.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.31 | 4.08 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.73 |
| elo | 1711.16 | 1869.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.69 | -8.16 |
| eye test v1 | 0.36 | 1.82 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.35 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | — | 52.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 1.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.65 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.65 |
| league points | 45.00 | 72.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.00 | 87.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.40 | 72.00 |
| rest days | 6.79 | 19.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 2.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 11.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 18.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.56 | 2.65 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 7.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 9.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.20 |
| squad age | 28.30 | 26.30 |
| state index | 0.40 | 1.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.36 | 1.67 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 256.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |