← Premier League 2017-18 · Wed, Jan 31, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Madley, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 85% | 67% | 1.15 | fair |
| Draw | 11% | 27% | 9.10 | value: +148% ⚠ |
| West Brom win | 4% | 6% | 23.50 | value: +33% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Fernandinho · Man City |
| 32' | 🟨 | David Silva · Man City |
| 68' | 🟨 | James McClean · West Brom |
| 68' | ⚽ | Kevin De Bruyne · Man City |
| 75' | 🟨 | Salomón Rondón · West Brom |
| 85' | 🟨 | Matt Phillips · West Brom |
| 89' | ⚽ | Sergio Agüero · Man City |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 3 |
| 10 | On target | 1 |
| 9 | Corners | 1 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man City | West Brom |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Etihad Stadium |
| coach days | 579.00 | 91.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.98 | 3.03 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1868.63 | 1489.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.91 | 17.85 |
| eye test v1 | 1.07 | -0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.29 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.30 | 58.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.71 |
| league points | 65.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 89.00 | 71.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 74.80 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 11.00 | 11.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 2.71 | 0.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.20 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 2.99 | -0.90 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.10 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 26.61 | 29.99 |
| state index | 1.40 | 0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 2.03 | -1.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.33 |
| travel km | — | 109.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.40 |