← Premier League 2017-18 · Tue, Jan 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Lee Mason, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 86% | 77% | 1.13 | fair |
| Draw | 9% | 18% | 10.80 | value: +99% |
| Watford win | 5% | 4% | 21.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Raheem Sterling · Man City |
| 13' | ⚽ (og) | Christian Kabasele · Man City |
| 24' | 🟨 | David Silva · Man City |
| 63' | ⚽ | Sergio Agüero · Man City |
| 82' | ⚽ | Andre Gray · Watford |
| 83' | 🟨 | Roberto Pereyra · Watford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 7 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 1 |
| 8 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man City | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Etihad Stadium |
| coach days | 550.00 | 1.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.81 | 2.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1875.71 | 1485.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.74 | -40.86 |
| eye test v1 | 1.55 | -1.05 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.65 | -0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.40 | 58.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.63 |
| league points | 59.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.20 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 72.40 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 2.81 | 1.19 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 11.80 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.80 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 2.75 | -0.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.20 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 2.20 |
| squad age | 26.71 | 28.06 |
| state index | 1.81 | -0.81 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.58 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 237.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.60 |