← Premier League 2017-18 · Tue, Dec 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Anthony Taylor, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Huddersfield win | 42% | 42% | 2.35 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.23 | fair |
| Stoke win | 28% | 29% | 3.51 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Thomas Ince · Huddersfield |
| 59' | 🟨 | Christopher Schindler · Huddersfield |
| 60' | 🟨 | Ramadan Sobhi · Stoke |
| 60' | ⚽ | Ramadan Sobhi · Stoke |
| 69' | 🟨 | Geoff Cameron · Stoke |
| 72' | 🟨 | Kurt Zouma · Stoke |
| 76' | 🟨 | Mame Biram Diouf · Stoke |
| 85' | 🟨 | Zanka · Huddersfield |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 15 |
| 8 | On target | 7 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Huddersfield | Stoke |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| venue | John Smith's Stadium |
| coach days | 786.00 | 1700.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -4.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 8.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.37 | 2.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1512.16 | 1500.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.48 | -14.13 |
| eye test v1 | -0.06 | -0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.42 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.60 | 67.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.55 | 0.57 |
| league points | 22.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.40 | 71.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.16 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.54 | -0.99 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 27.11 | 27.87 |
| state index | 0.11 | -0.51 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.30 | -0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 78.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |