← Premier League 2017-18 · Wed, Dec 13, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Anthony Taylor, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 79% | 81% | 1.24 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 12% | 7.15 | fair |
| Swansea win | 8% | 8% | 13.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | ⚽ | David Silva · Man City |
| 34' | ⚽ | Kevin De Bruyne · Man City |
| 52' | ⚽ | David Silva · Man City |
| 85' | ⚽ | Sergio Agüero · Man City |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 7 | Shots | 23 |
| 3 | On target | 10 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 6 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Swansea | Man City |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Liberty Stadium |
| coach days | 12.00 | 530.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 4.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 2.30 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.77 |
| elo | 1481.39 | 1861.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.66 | 25.56 |
| eye test v1 | -1.21 | 1.49 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.70 | 61.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.64 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.63 |
| league points | 12.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 87.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.60 | 74.20 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.44 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 2.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 12.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 18.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.39 | 2.76 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.00 | 7.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 7.20 |
| squad age | 28.28 | 27.08 |
| state index | -0.31 | 1.71 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.52 | 1.83 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 235.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.00 |