← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Oct 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jonathan Moss, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 71% | 74% | 1.37 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 17% | 5.35 | fair |
| Watford win | 10% | 9% | 9.60 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | José Holebas · Watford |
| 12' | ⚽ | Pedro · Chelsea |
| 19' | 🟨 | Adrian Mariappa · Watford |
| 23' | 🟨 | Antonio Rüdiger · Chelsea |
| 45' | ⚽ | Abdoulaye Doucouré · Watford |
| 49' | ⚽ | Roberto Pereyra · Watford |
| 56' | 🟨 | Álvaro Morata · Chelsea |
| 71' | ⚽ | Michy Batshuayi · Chelsea |
| 78' | 🟨 | Kiko Femenía · Watford |
| 87' | ⚽ | César Azpilicueta · Chelsea |
| 90' | ⚽ | Michy Batshuayi · Chelsea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 16 |
| 8 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chelsea | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | Stamford Bridge |
| coach days | 477.00 | 173.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.26 | 1.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1800.68 | 1526.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.30 | 40.68 |
| eye test v1 | 0.06 | -0.77 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.44 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.60 | 53.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.69 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.56 |
| league points | 13.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.20 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.46 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.63 | 1.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.67 | 0.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 27.14 | 28.43 |
| state index | 0.65 | 0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.62 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 23.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |