← Premier League 2017-18 · Sat, Oct 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Craig Pawson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 86% | 82% | 1.14 | fair |
| Draw | 9% | 12% | 10.50 | value: +24% |
| Stoke win | 5% | 6% | 20.00 | value: +22% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Gabriel Jesus · Man City |
| 19' | ⚽ | Raheem Sterling · Man City |
| 27' | ⚽ | David Silva · Man City |
| 44' | ⚽ | Mame Biram Diouf · Stoke |
| 47' | ⚽ (og) | Kyle Walker · Stoke |
| 55' | ⚽ | Gabriel Jesus · Man City |
| 60' | ⚽ | Fernandinho · Man City |
| 62' | ⚽ | Leroy Sané · Man City |
| 79' | ⚽ | Bernardo Silva · Man City |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ibrahim Afellay · Stoke |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 5 |
| 11 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 0 |
| 5 | Fouls | 8 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man City | Stoke |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| venue | Etihad Stadium |
| coach days | 470.00 | 1627.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.93 | 2.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1814.28 | 1540.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 44.84 | -2.10 |
| eye test v1 | 2.15 | 0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | 0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.70 | 60.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.87 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.63 |
| league points | 19.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 89.40 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 67.60 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 2.71 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 13.40 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 20.40 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 2.57 | -0.37 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.70 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.07 | 27.85 |
| state index | 2.14 | -0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.12 | -1.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| travel km | — | 55.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |