← Premier League 2016-17 · Sun, May 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Neil Swarbrick, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 88% | 82% | 1.12 | fair |
| Draw | 9% | 13% | 11.50 | value: +51% |
| Sunderland win | 4% | 5% | 25.50 | value: +29% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Javier Manquillo · Sunderland |
| 8' | ⚽ | Willian · Chelsea |
| 38' | 🟨 | Diego Costa · Chelsea |
| 48' | 🟨 | Billy Jones · Sunderland |
| 61' | ⚽ | Eden Hazard · Chelsea |
| 77' | ⚽ | Pedro · Chelsea |
| 90' | ⚽ | Michy Batshuayi · Chelsea |
| 90' | ⚽ | Michy Batshuayi · Chelsea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 28 | Shots | 7 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 11 | Corners | 1 |
| 8 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chelsea | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stamford Bridge |
| coach days | 324.00 | 324.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.95 | 2.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1817.91 | 1412.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 28.16 | -15.83 |
| eye test v1 | 1.38 | -0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 69.40 | 61.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.77 |
| league points | 90.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.80 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.00 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.45 |
| season ppg | 2.43 | 0.65 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 11.00 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.40 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.08 | -0.48 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.18 | 28.33 |
| state index | 1.59 | -0.74 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.38 | -0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 389.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |