← Premier League 2016-17 · Sun, May 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Michael Oliver, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 71% | 60% | 1.38 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 24% | 6.05 | value: +47% |
| Everton win | 13% | 16% | 7.57 | value: +19% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Héctor Bellerín · Arsenal |
| 14' | 🟥 | Laurent Koscielny · Arsenal |
| 19' | 🟨 | Ashley Williams · Everton |
| 27' | ⚽ | Alexis Sánchez · Arsenal |
| 39' | 🟨 | Phil Jagielka · Everton |
| 52' | 🟨 | Gabriel Paulista · Arsenal |
| 58' | ⚽ (pen) | Romelu Lukaku · Everton |
| 61' | 🟨 | Morgan Schneiderlin · Everton |
| 62' | 🟨 | Rob Holding · Arsenal |
| 73' | 🟨 | Leighton Baines · Everton |
| 90' | ⚽ | Aaron Ramsey · Arsenal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 22 |
| 9 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Arsenal | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.44 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Emirates Stadium |
| coach days | 7538.00 | 354.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.32 | 1.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1738.48 | 1644.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 33.02 | -18.95 |
| eye test v1 | 1.04 | -0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.48 | -0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.00 | 53.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.64 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.68 |
| league points | 72.00 | 61.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.00 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.20 | 59.40 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.44 |
| season ppg | 1.95 | 1.65 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.25 | 1.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 26.41 | 27.58 |
| state index | 1.18 | 0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.43 | 0.87 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 285.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |