← Premier League 2016-17 · Thu, May 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Michael Oliver, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham win | 52% | 49% | 1.89 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 33% | 3.95 | value: +31% |
| Leicester win | 23% | 18% | 4.18 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Harry Kane · Tottenham |
| 36' | ⚽ | Son Heung-min · Tottenham |
| 59' | ⚽ | Ben Chilwell · Leicester |
| 63' | ⚽ | Harry Kane · Tottenham |
| 65' | 🟨 | Marc Albrighton · Leicester |
| 65' | 🟨 | Moussa Sissoko · Tottenham |
| 71' | ⚽ | Son Heung-min · Tottenham |
| 75' | 🟨 | Demarai Gray · Leicester |
| 80' | 🟨 | Danny Simpson · Leicester |
| 88' | ⚽ | Harry Kane · Tottenham |
| 90' | ⚽ | Harry Kane · Tottenham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 12 | Shots | 26 |
| 5 | On target | 12 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leicester | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | King Power Stadium |
| coach days | 84.00 | 1052.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 7.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.07 | 2.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1600.97 | 1785.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.48 | 12.26 |
| eye test v1 | -0.86 | 1.75 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.43 | -0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.40 | 66.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.81 |
| league points | 43.00 | 80.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.20 | 82.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.40 | 63.20 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 2.22 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.00 | 8.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 17.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.43 | 1.57 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 7.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.20 |
| squad age | 27.63 | 25.87 |
| state index | 0.38 | 1.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.65 | 0.70 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 134.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |