← Premier League 2016-17 · Mon, May 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Lee Mason, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 76% | 79% | 1.29 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 14% | 6.56 | fair |
| Watford win | 9% | 7% | 10.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟨 | José Holebas · Watford |
| 11' | 🟨 | Nordin Amrabat · Watford |
| 22' | ⚽ | John Terry · Chelsea |
| 24' | ⚽ | Étienne Capoue · Watford |
| 30' | 🟨 | Nathan Aké · Chelsea |
| 36' | ⚽ | César Azpilicueta · Chelsea |
| 49' | ⚽ | Michy Batshuayi · Chelsea |
| 51' | ⚽ | Daryl Janmaat · Watford |
| 58' | 🟨 | Nathaniel Chalobah · Chelsea |
| 74' | ⚽ | Stefano Okaka · Watford |
| 83' | 🟨 | Sebastian Prödl · Watford |
| 88' | ⚽ | Cesc Fàbregas · Chelsea |
| 90' | 🟨 | Stefano Okaka · Watford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Troy Deeney · Watford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sebastian Prödl · Watford |
| 90' | 🟥 | Sebastian Prödl · Watford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 24 | Shots | 9 |
| 9 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 7 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chelsea | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stamford Bridge |
| coach days | 318.00 | 14.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.01 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.96 | 3.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1816.12 | 1473.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.94 | -27.28 |
| eye test v1 | 0.39 | -0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.40 | 51.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.68 |
| league points | 87.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.40 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 2.42 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.07 | 0.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 27.40 | 29.77 |
| state index | 1.33 | -0.80 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.29 | -0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 23.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.00 |