← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, May 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Madley, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 80% | 72% | 1.23 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 19% | 7.95 | value: +48% |
| Leicester win | 8% | 9% | 12.50 | value: +11% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | ⚽ | David Silva · Man City |
| 35' | 🟨 | Yohan Benalouane · Leicester |
| 36' | ⚽ (pen) | Gabriel Jesus · Man City |
| 42' | ⚽ | Shinji Okazaki · Leicester |
| 50' | 🟨 | Vincent Kompany · Man City |
| 72' | 🟨 | Christian Fuchs · Leicester |
| 79' | 🟨 | Marc Albrighton · Leicester |
| 84' | 🟨 | Sergio Agüero · Man City |
| 90' | 🟨 | David Silva · Man City |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man City | Leicester |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Etihad Stadium |
| coach days |
| 316.00 |
| 79.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 2.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.34 |
| elo | 1748.95 | 1605.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.78 | 3.86 |
| eye test v1 | 1.49 | -0.82 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.27 | -0.68 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.80 | 67.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.78 |
| league points | 69.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.80 | 70.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 66.60 | 40.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.97 | 1.23 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 14.40 | -6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 21.60 | 7.20 |
| skill v1 | 2.37 | -1.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 28.69 | 28.76 |
| state index | 1.40 | 0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.80 | -0.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.18 |
| travel km | — | 119.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |