← Premier League 2016-17 · Fri, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Michael Oliver, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 71% | 61% | 1.38 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 17% | 5.18 | fair |
| West Brom win | 10% | 23% | 9.76 | value: +121% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | James McClean · West Brom |
| 36' | 🟨 | Samuel Field · West Brom |
| 71' | 🟨 | Marc Wilson · West Brom |
| 82' | ⚽ | Michy Batshuayi · Chelsea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 24 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 8 |
| 13 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Brom | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | The Hawthorns |
| coach days | 893.00 | 315.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.12 | 2.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1529.18 | 1811.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -43.33 | 14.01 |
| eye test v1 | -0.34 | 0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.40 | 68.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.65 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.53 | 0.63 |
| league points | 45.00 | 84.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.20 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.20 | 51.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 2.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.89 | 0.79 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 30.00 | 27.42 |
| state index | -0.65 | 1.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.11 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 166.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.40 |