← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Michael Oliver, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 78% | 83% | 1.26 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 14% | 11% | 7.00 | fair |
| Crystal Palace win | 8% | 5% | 11.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | David Silva · Man City |
| 4' | 🟨 | Martin Kelly · Crystal Palace |
| 33' | 🟨 | Vincent Kompany · Man City |
| 49' | ⚽ | Vincent Kompany · Man City |
| 52' | 🟨 | Luka Milivojević · Crystal Palace |
| 59' | ⚽ | Kevin De Bruyne · Man City |
| 82' | ⚽ | Raheem Sterling · Man City |
| 90' | 🟨 | Damien Delaney · Crystal Palace |
| 90' | ⚽ | Nicolás Otamendi · Man City |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 26 | Shots | 5 |
| 12 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man City | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Etihad Stadium |
| coach days |
| 309.00 |
| 156.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.81 | 3.97 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1742.60 | 1513.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.53 | 16.48 |
| eye test v1 | 1.10 | -0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.50 | 64.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.74 |
| league points | 66.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.80 | 66.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 65.00 | 41.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.94 | 1.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.80 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 2.25 | -1.57 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 28.52 | 28.29 |
| state index | 0.97 | 0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.86 | -1.52 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| travel km | — | 272.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |