← Premier League 2016-17 · Sun, Apr 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Michael Oliver, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham win | 54% | 58% | 1.82 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 24% | 21% | 4.15 | fair |
| Arsenal win | 22% | 21% | 4.37 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 55' | ⚽ | Dele Alli · Tottenham |
| 58' | ⚽ (pen) | Harry Kane · Tottenham |
| 70' | 🟨 | Gabriel Paulista · Arsenal |
| 72' | 🟨 | Harry Kane · Tottenham |
| 73' | 🟨 | Olivier Giroud · Arsenal |
| 76' | 🟨 | Nacho Monreal · Arsenal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 12 |
| 11 | On target | 4 |
| 14 | Corners | 5 |
| 7 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Tottenham | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | White Hart Lane |
| coach days |
| 1034.00 |
| 7517.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.47 | 3.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1783.55 | 1705.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 28.39 | -9.09 |
| eye test v1 | 1.72 | 0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.90 | 52.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.73 |
| league points | 74.00 | 60.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.60 | 83.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 65.60 | 63.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 2.24 | 1.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.60 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 2.07 | 1.69 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.80 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 26.07 | 27.96 |
| state index | 1.84 | 0.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.82 | 1.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 6.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.60 |