← Premier League 2016-17 · Mon, Apr 17, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Anthony Taylor, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 65% | 52% | 1.50 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 26% | 4.95 | value: +26% |
| Middlesbrough win | 15% | 23% | 6.58 | value: +48% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟨 | Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain · Arsenal |
| 7' | 🟨 | Grant Leadbitter · Middlesbrough |
| 42' | ⚽ | Alexis Sánchez · Arsenal |
| 43' | 🟨 | Gabriel Paulista · Arsenal |
| 50' | ⚽ | Álvaro Negredo · Middlesbrough |
| 71' | ⚽ | Mesut Özil · Arsenal |
| 82' | 🟨 | Rudy Gestede · Middlesbrough |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Middlesbrough | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Riverside |
| coach days | 1263.00 | 7504.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.21 | 3.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1659.53 | 1884.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.10 | -54.33 |
| eye test v1 | -0.62 | -0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.36 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.60 | 49.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | — |
| league points | 24.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 14.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.80 | 61.20 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 0.77 | 1.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.34 | 1.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 28.95 | 26.03 |
| state index | -0.74 | 0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.54 | 1.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| travel km | — | 344.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |