← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Anthony Taylor, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 57% | 61% | 1.71 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.70 | fair |
| Stoke win | 16% | 14% | 6.07 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Willian · Chelsea |
| 15' | 🟨 | Joe Allen · Stoke |
| 17' | 🟨 | Diego Costa · Chelsea |
| 38' | ⚽ (pen) | Jonathan Walters · Stoke |
| 40' | 🟨 | Phil Bardsley · Stoke |
| 65' | 🟨 | Bruno Martins Indi · Stoke |
| 65' | 🟨 | Erik Pieters · Stoke |
| 87' | ⚽ | Gary Cahill · Chelsea |
| 90' | 🟨 | Phil Bardsley · Stoke |
| 90' | 🟨 | Geoff Cameron · Stoke |
| 90' | 🟥 | Phil Bardsley · Stoke |
| 90' | 🟨 | Cesc Fàbregas · Chelsea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 5 | Shots | 20 |
| 1 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 11 |
| 16 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stoke | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.54 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.81 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | bet365 Stadium |
| coach days | 1417.00 | 260.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.18 | 2.85 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1572.83 | 1803.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.09 | 13.51 |
| eye test v1 | -0.30 | -0.09 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.70 | 73.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.68 |
| league points | 36.00 | 66.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.40 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 2.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | 4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.23 | 0.70 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 28.67 | 27.11 |
| state index | 0.14 | 1.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.37 | 0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 215.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |